HEIO:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMHeineken Holding N.V. Analysis
Data as of 2026-03-14 - not real-time
€66.33
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Heineken Holding is trading above its short‑term moving averages, with the 20‑day SMA positioned above the 50‑day SMA, reinforcing a bullish alignment despite a modestly bearish MACD histogram and a signal line that remains above the MACD line. Technical momentum is further tempered by a sub‑50 RSI, suggesting limited upside pressure in the near term, while volume trends are slipping, hinting at waning short‑term buying interest.
On the fundamentals side, the company delivers a respectable dividend yield and a payout ratio that leaves ample room for sustainability, supported by solid operating cash flow and free cash flow generation. Recent material news highlights an active share‑buyback programme, which can provide price support and signal confidence from the majority shareholder. However, revenue growth remains negative and the DCF‑derived fair value sits well below the current market price, indicating that the stock may be priced for optimism. Overall, the blend of stable cash generation, dividend appeal, and ongoing buyback activity offers a defensive profile, but valuation pressures and muted technical signals advise caution.
On the fundamentals side, the company delivers a respectable dividend yield and a payout ratio that leaves ample room for sustainability, supported by solid operating cash flow and free cash flow generation. Recent material news highlights an active share‑buyback programme, which can provide price support and signal confidence from the majority shareholder. However, revenue growth remains negative and the DCF‑derived fair value sits well below the current market price, indicating that the stock may be priced for optimism. Overall, the blend of stable cash generation, dividend appeal, and ongoing buyback activity offers a defensive profile, but valuation pressures and muted technical signals advise caution.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating short‑term downside pressure
- Decreasing volume trend reducing liquidity
- Price hovering near recent support level
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- Ongoing share‑buyback programme providing price support
- Sustainable dividend yield with comfortable payout ratio
- Stable operating cash flow despite modest revenue contraction
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- Strong brand franchise and defensive consumer‑defensive positioning
- Consistent dividend payments and cash generation capacity
- Long‑term upside potential from emerging‑market exposure and buyback discipline
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.80%
Profit Margin3.31%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROE10.08%
ROA4.44%
Debt/Equity94.81
P/B Ratio2.1
Op. Cash Flow€5.0B
Free Cash Flow€2.2B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI38.6
Support€65.50
Resistance€72.82
MA 20€70.33
MA 50€65.76
MA 200€63.04
MACDBearish
VolumeDecreasing
Fear & Greed Index72.88
Valuation
Fair Value€54.58
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield2.86%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.18
Volatility28.91%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskHigh
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.